模拟联合国立场文件用语

【专家解说】：如果安理会不能就制裁伊朗达成一致，美国将“单干”，绕过联合国，联合自己的铁杆盟友，组成特定的“制裁联盟”，对伊朗实施制裁。 但美国暂时还不会考虑对伊朗实施全面经济制裁，特别是石油禁运。因为如果伊朗每天约300万桶的原油出口被停止，国际油价就会大幅度攀升。这既会伤及美国经济，也会殃及其他国家，影响其参与制裁的积极性。 其三，美国、以色列对伊朗核设施等主要目标实施外科手术式打击。布什政府一直没有排除对伊朗采取军事行动的可能。在美国许多鹰派看来，除了军事手段外，美国没有其他解决伊朗核问题的有效途径，参议员麦卡恩声称，“只有一件事比采取军事行动更糟，那就是出现一个用核武器武装起来的伊朗。”随着伊核问题的不断升级，美国对伊朗采取军事打击的可能性也在增加。最近，美国把驻伊拉克部队从12．7万人增加到14万人。这一增兵举动既是应对伊拉克持续恶化的安全形势，也不排除为对伊朗动武做准备。 此外，以色列也可能单独对伊朗发动先发制人的打击。由于地缘政治原因，以色列比美国更担心伊朗的核计划，甚至认为伊朗在2～3年内就可能制造出核武器。因此，以色列一直在为对伊朗采取军事行动做准备。它已向美国购买了用于攻击地下掩体目标的智能炸弹，并将从德国购进两艘能够进行核打击的先进潜艇。据西方媒体报道，以色列空军司令埃利泽·沙凯迪最近被任命为全面负责“伊朗战线”的司令官。 制裁阻力重重 通过制裁来削弱和孤立伊朗，是美国现阶段的既定政策。美国试图以伊朗拒绝暂停铀浓缩为借口建立反伊联盟，推动安理会对伊朗实施制裁。由于伊朗是主要能源出口国，同许多大国有密切的经济关系，包括欧盟、俄罗斯、印度等国在内的许多国家并不希望制裁伊朗。而且，国际原子能机构迄今并未发现伊朗发展核武器的证据，对伊实施严厉制裁法理不足。 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫9月15日重申，俄对伊核问题的立场是，既不排除对伊朗实施制裁，也不排除否决该制裁的可能。俄处理伊朗核问题的惯用手法是，先用模棱两可的态度压伊朗做出妥协，在西方动真格时再拉伊朗一把。美国要制裁伊朗，必须先过俄罗斯这一关。 欧盟一直认为，制裁只能将伊朗推向更为强烈的对抗境地。欧洲国家在经贸上与伊朗保持密切联系。德国、法国、意大利分别是伊朗第二、第三、第四大贸易伙伴。欧洲的几大石油公司都在伊朗有大宗业务。如果伊朗受到制裁，欧盟利益将首当其冲地受到打击。此外，欧盟还认为，西方不仅需要在核不扩散问题上同伊朗合作，而且也需要在黎巴嫩、伊拉克、巴勒斯坦等问题上同它合作。制裁会使伊朗在上述问题上同西方捣乱。 发展中国家历来不满美国在国际事务中，特别是核不扩散问题上所持的双重标准。布什最近冒出的“伊斯兰法西斯主义”的提法，又引起一些伊斯兰国家的强烈反感。 美国要劝说安理会中的发展中国家表态支持制裁伊朗，也不容易。在哈瓦那刚刚结束的第14次不结盟运动首脑会议上，首脑们发表联合声明，支持伊朗和平利用核能，相信伊核问题能通过和平对话得到解决。委内瑞拉总统查韦斯更明确表示：“伊朗现在面临威胁”……“我们会与你们站在一起”。深受感动的内贾德干脆称自己和查氏是与美国战斗的“难兄难弟”。 想说动武不容易 伊朗不同于萨达姆统治下的伊拉克，其经济力量、军事实力均不可小觑，再加上伊朗地形复杂、核设施分散等原因，美国、以色列对伊朗实施军事打击存在一定难度。 此外，伊朗对中东地区其他国家什叶派及激进势力有重要影响。美国全力支持的以色列在黎以冲突中遭遇挫折，证明中东地区什叶派反美武装实力不能小视。从能源上看，伊朗是石油输出国组织中的第二大石油出口国，丰富的油气资源使其在国际能源市场上举足轻重。伊朗还控制着波斯湾石油运输通道——霍尔木兹海峡。一旦战火燃起，伊朗中断石油输出或封锁霍尔木兹海峡，都将对国际油价带来致命的打击。 最近有报道说，美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德也对解决伊朗核计划的“军事方案”提出尖锐反对意见。根据美国情报部门估计，伊朗的核技术发展仍处于研究阶段，要成功制造核武器，仍需5～10年时间。美以等仍有充分时间为军事打击做好外交等准备。特别是，美国国会中期选举在即，伊拉克战争给共和党带来的负面影响，使布什在选举前不会轻举妄动。从美方的军事能力来看，对伊朗采取外科手术式打击绝对不是问题，关键在于如何应对军事打击后出现的动荡局面。有分析认为，国会中期选举之后，美国有可能伙同以色列对伊朗核设施进行打击。这种可能虽然不大，但不能完全排除。 和谈仍是惟一最好选择 对美国和伊朗而言，选择对抗并非明智之举，无论是动武，还是实施全面经济制裁，结果都将是两败俱伤。谈判解决伊朗核问题最符合各方利益。 目前，谈判解决伊朗核问题仍有希望。欧盟现任轮值主席国芬兰外长图奥米奥亚明确表示，现在还不是对伊朗实行制裁的时候，欧盟主张继续同伊朗进行严肃对话，通过外交手段解决伊朗核问题。近日，欧盟负责外交与安全政策的高级代表索拉纳与伊朗核问题首席谈判代表拉里贾尼举行了会谈并取得一定进展。 美国也没有把和谈之门完全关上。国务卿赖斯9月11日在加拿大接受记者提问时表示，伊朗需要在谈判开始之前停止铀浓缩活动，即使是暂时性停止也可以接受。美国驻国际原子能机构的代表则提出一边实施制裁，一边进行外交谈判的建议。上述表态为和谈预留了一定空间。 中国历来反对一切形式的核扩散，主张以政治和外交手段解决扩散问题，坚决反对对伊朗实施制裁。9月13日，中国代表在国际原子能机构理事会审议伊朗核问题时表示，中方希望伊方执行联合国安理会和国际原子能机构的有关决议，继续与国际原子能机构全面合作，为复谈创造条件。同时，中方也希望其他有关各方继续保持冷静和克制，坚持和平解决方向。看来伊核问题仍存有和平解决的希望。 If the Security Council can not reach agreement on sanctions against Iran, the United States will "go it alone", bypassing the United Nations, Joint their loyal allies, and the specific composition of the "Union sanctions," to impose sanctions on Iran. However, the United States temporarily to Iran will not consider a comprehensive economic sanctions, especially the oil embargo. If Iran daily about 3 million barrels of crude oil exports had been suspended, international oil prices will be rising dramatically. This will not only hurt the U.S. economy, also affected other countries, the sanctions affect their participation in the initiative. Third, the United States and Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities and other major targets, surgical operation-style strike. The Bush administration has not ruled out the right of Iran to take military action possible. Many hawks in the United States appears, in addition to military means, the United States is no other solution to the Iran nuclear issue, is an effective way Senator McCann claimed, "only one thing than to take military action even worse, It is the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. "With the Iranian nuclear problem is escalating The United States on Iran the possibility of a military strike is also increasing. Recently, the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq from 127,000 people to 140,000 people. The move is sending more troops to deal with Iraq's continued deterioration of the security situation, would not exclude the possibility of using force against Iran to prepare. Furthermore, Israel may also separate the Iranian launch a pre-emptive strike. Due to geopolitical reasons, Israel than the United States is worried that Iran's nuclear program. even in 2-3 years Iran could produce nuclear weapons. Therefore, Israel has been in Iran for the right to take military operations. It has already been purchased for the United States to attack underground bunkers target smart bombs, and bought two from Germany to launch a nuclear attack submarines advanced. According to Western media reports, Israeli Air Force Commander Eliezer Shakaidi recent appointment as overall responsibility for the "Iran front," the commander. A lot of resistance through sanctions to weaken the sanctions and isolation of Iran, is the established policy of the United States at this stage. The United States has attempted to Iran refuses to suspend uranium enrichment as an excuse to build an anti-Iraq alliance, and get the Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. Because Iran is a major energy exporter, with many large state-owned closer economic relations, including the EU, Russia, India, among other countries, many countries did not want sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency has found that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons evidence that the imposition of severe sanctions against Iraq less than legal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on September 15 reiterated that the nuclear issue of Iraq and Russia's position is that neither ruled out the imposition of sanctions on Iran, does not rule out veto the sanctions are possible. Russia deal with the issue of Iran's nuclear trick, first with ambiguous attitude pressure Iran to compromise put into action in the West when Layilang one. United States sanctions against Iran, Russia must cross this hurdle. The EU believed that sanctions would only push Iran more strongly against the state. European countries in the economic and trade with Iran in close contact. Germany, France, Iran, Italy were second, third, fourth largest trading partner. Europe has several big oil companies in Iran bulk business. If Iran sanctions, the EU interests will be the first to suffer from combat. In addition, the EU also believes that the West need not only on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation cooperation with Iran, but also in Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine and other issues with it. Iran sanctions will on the issue with the Western disturbance. Developing countries have traditionally dissatisfied with the United States in international affairs, particularly in the nuclear non-proliferation issues, the double standard. Bush has recently cropped up an "Islamic fascism" was also the subject of some Islamic countries strongly resent. The United States wants to persuade the Council of the developing countries expressed support for sanctions against Iran, it was not easy. Havana in the just-concluded 14th Non-Aligned Movement summit, the heads of state issued a joint statement, support for Iran's peaceful use of nuclear energy, I believe that the Iranian nuclear issue through peaceful dialogue to be resolved. Venezuelan President Chavez more clear : "Iran is now facing the threat" ... "We will stand together with you." Deeply touched by the Nejad simply call themselves and Richards with the United States fighting "pair of fellow sufferers." The use of force is not easy to say Iran is different from Saddam's rule of Iraq, its economic strength, have considerable military strength, coupled with the complex topography of Iran nuclear facilities scattered other reasons, the United States, Israel's military actions against Iran, there is a certain degree of difficulty. In addition, Iran in the Middle East region and other countries Shiite radical forces have an important impact. The United States fully supports Israel in the conflict between Lebanon and Israel who have suffered setbacks to prove that the Middle East region Shiite anti-American armed strength can not belittle. From the energy perspective, Iran is OPEC's second largest oil exporter, rich oil and gas resources in international energy markets actor. Iran is also in control of the Persian Gulf oil transport corridor -- the Strait of Hormuz. once the war started, Iran suspended oil exports or blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil prices will deal a fatal blow. A recent report said, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld also to resolve the Iranian nuclear program "military options" expressed sharp opposition. According to American intelligence estimates that Iran's nuclear technology development is still at the research stage, the successful production of nuclear weapons. still 5-10 years. Such as the United States still have enough time to do a military strike diplomatic preparations. In particular, the United States midterm Congressional elections approaching, the war in Iraq to the Republican Party, the negative impact Bush in the pre-election period will not act rashly. From the United States military capability, on Iran surgical strikes against no problem, The key lies in how to deal with military strikes after the upheaval. Some analysts believe that the midterm Congressional elections, the United States may, together with Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities to fight. This may be not much, but can not be completely ruled out. Negotiation is the only best option for the United States and Iran, the confrontation is not a wise choice, whether to use force or the implementation of comprehensive economic sanctions, the result will be a lose-lose. Negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue best interests of all parties. Currently, negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue is still hopeful. Holds the EU's rotating presidency Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said explicitly that it is not the imposition of sanctions on Iran when EU calls for Iran to engage in serious dialogue, through diplomatic means to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Recently, EU foreign and security policy, Javier Solana, High Representative of the Iranian nuclear issue and the chief negotiator at the talks Editorials and have made certain progress. The United States did not consider the peace talks door ajar. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on September 11 in Canada with a reporter's question, said, Iran needs prior to the start of negotiations to stop its uranium enrichment activities, even a temporary halt would be acceptable. U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency representatives suggested imposition of sanctions side, the side of the diplomatic negotiations. These stand for peace talks set aside a certain space. China has always been opposed to all forms of nuclear proliferation, advocates a political and diplomatic means to solve the proliferation problem. resolutely opposed to the imposition of sanctions on Iran. September 13, the Chinese representative to the IAEA Board of Governors to consider the Iran nuclear issue, said China hopes Iraq to implement the UN Security Council and the relevant resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency. continue to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency, to create conditions for the resumption of talks. Meanwhile, the Chinese side also hopes other parties concerned to continue to remain calm and exercise restraint, uphold peace settlement. It seems the Iranian nuclear issue is still hope for a peaceful settlement.